Positive: Just Not In the Covid-19 Test Sense

Raj and I are going to the old farts hour at our local market, maybe they’ll have potatoes today.

So this advice will have to suffice in lieu of a post:

Good advice at any time I suspect, just a bit harder right now.

“We’re All Waiting For the World to End”"

How about a little old fashioned foot stomping knee slapping musicality to greet this Taco Tuesday?

It’s a little bit country, a little bit rock and roll – served up with a grand splash of super funk. If you’ve been looking for an official Wuhan Coronavirus theme song this is it: music for the Great Undoing.

If you haven’t had your coffee yet this studio version will suffice in its stead.

If you have already had your covfefe and prefer to get up on your feet and dance with abandon to the Great Quietus, here is the live [she said without irony] version. I recommend it; if you can watch the whole thing and not break out in a smile you’re taking things too seriously my friend.

So in conclusion here's the solution
Just live your life until you die, my friend
Have no regrets and don't forget
We're all waiting for the world to end

“Mommy, What Did You Do During the Wuhan Coronavirus War?”

Some day your children or grandchildren will ask you what you did during the Wuhan Coronavirus War. Ensure that you use your time such that you’ll have something to tell them other than “I binged crappy shows on Netflix.”

Do some research, maybe learn a new skill:

Let’s just say that some people were more productive than others during the Great Pandemic of 2020.

Lucy’s redecorated stairwell, circa 2020

Nobody Knows Nuthin’– Black Swan Edition

Warning: There’s Always a Black Swan Somewhere Ahead

"There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know." -  Donald Rumsfeld, 2002

This is undoubtedly Rumsfeld’s most famous, as well as most derided, quote. The media, predisposed towards disdain for George W. Bush’s Secretary of Defense, didn’t even attempt to comprehend what he was telling them. Instead they ridiculed his statement as “word salad.” If however you have at least a working knowledge of classic risk assessment technique/models – which most journalists do not - Rumsfeld’s statement would seem both perfectly logical and linguistically correct.

Human endeavors are riddled with knowns and unknowns.

That’s why decisions are seldom perfect. Risk analysis helps sort through what you do know, assess the impact of things you don’t and direct you to the best decision based on a thorough evaluation of circumstances, facts and hypotheses. Many methodologies exist for coaxing data from the first 3 quadrants, but only imagination will help you discover what you don’t yet know.

Which is why novelists predicted a 9-11 event, the financial meltdown and countless examples of worldwide pandemics but apparently nobody actually responsible for averting such disasters ever conceived of them. Such disasters have come to known as Black Swan events: an extremely rare, unpredictable event with severe consequences. With the benefit of hindsight people who lacked the imagination to envision such a calamity  will claim that the Black Swan should have been predictable.

But we are in the middle of the maelstrom, having not yet arrived at the point of perfect knowledge known as hindsight. If we’re not driving blind we’re certainly operating with impaired sight. And we’ve reached a dark intersection where the knowns have the right of way but there is no guarantee that the unknowns will yield to them.

Hence we have two camps regarding our response to the the coronavirus threat: one camp says we are shutting the country down and ruining the economy for no valid reason, the risk to the general population isn’t that great and it’s much ado about nothing. The other camp contends that this thing, this plague, could decimate the population and requires an abundance of caution. I bounce back and forth, simply because the unknowns at this point remain many and significant. Nobody actually knows.

What we do know, although nobody in authority will admit it, is that this is a man-made disaster. To paraphrase the few scientists who are not (yet) afraid to speak out, the bio-markers of the “novel” Wuhan coronavirus genome are as unlikely to have occurred in nature as a monkey sitting at a keyboard and banging out a Shakespearian play.

So acting like this is just another flu is insane, especially since the Communist Chinese Party hasn’t told us anything we can trust about the virus’s origin, infection and death rate. Since we don’t know or understand the full extent of this scourge – Europe is just two or three weeks ahead of us so not a reliable model either - we don’t know whether destroying America’s economy is a futile attempt to contain the virus or the only prudent action.

So I sit here with too much time on my hands and no more real knowledge than I had 3 weeks ago. From that vantage point the the shutdown and shelter in place strategy looks like a stalling mechanism, right out of a dystopian novel, to keep the Grim Reaper at bay while we search frantically for a prophylactic and/or cure.

There is nothing worse than the uncertainty of outcomes and the ambiguity of meaning. That there’s been as little panic as there has been is almost commendable.  But the truth is out there and yes, we can handle the truth – even if it’s that nobody knows how this plays out at this point. I do not want a government functionary determining my fate. If the Black Swan has made another appearance we deserve to hear it sooner than later.

But remember, all swans appear black in the dark.

If the government expects us to follow their diktats - that are sounding more and more like martial law – and isolate in place for weeks or months we deserve to know why this is necessary. Shine a little more light on the pandemic’s prognosis. Tell us everything that is known today; and if nobody knows nuthin’ let us decide how we want to deal with the risks of the unknowns.

For all we know the swan is getting a bum wrap.

Real Life, Real Solutions

Thought for the day:

Priorities people, priorities.

Buckle Up Buttercup

And now, a PSA regarding the Wuhan virus from our FLOTUS:

"While changes need to be made now, this is not how we'll live forever. Our children will return to school, people will return to work, we will gather at the places of worship, concerts, and sporting events again," she said. "I urge you to stay connected to family and loved ones with video chats, phone calls, and social media."

"Stay safe and remember, while many of us are apart, we are all in this together."

Of course the anti-Trumpers lost no time proving her wrong, we are indeed not in this together as long as they can still squeeze an ounce of venom from their veins. Because for those suffering from TDS nothing is more important than hating on Trump and all things related to Trump.

Meanwhile California Governor Gavin Newsom issues the first “stay home” edict. Watch for other local potentates to follow suit quickly, unless they are overruled by a court somewhere. 

This is what “it will get worse before it gets better” looks like.

Stay home, where ever you call home.

With the left it’s always more of a threat than a warning.

Camping out in front of the shuttered San Francisco Ballet, homeless version of “movin’ on up.”

Buckle up buttercups, Wuhan Flu ain’t for wimps.

Wuu-hu! It’s Throwback Thursday

Woo-Hu! It’s Throwback Thursday.

“Dirty hands are dangerous. To keep the disease away be cultured; before eating, wash your hands with soap.” Soviet poster from 1955, words by Vladimir Mayakovsky.

Which is a great excuse for taking a brief break from pandemic planning to make a quick observation about the Democrats deep bench strength.

Crotchety Joe and Cantankerous Bernie

In that ironic sense that the Left is so good at, it strikes me that the last two Democrats standing (sort of) are Joe “you’re full of s**t” Biden and Bernie “I'm dealing with a f---ing global crisis” Sanders. These are the Democrats’ torchbearers for “restoring decency, dignity and honor to the White House?”

OK, Boomer.

Note: Regular Pandemic Panic will return tomorrow

Come On People, We Can Do This!

It’s officially Hump Day. If you’ve been suffering from Wuhan Flu overload and could use a little boost to get you over the hump allow me to help. Read When Wuhan Virus Departs, World Will Be Changed by Michael Walsh. It will give you something to look forward to.

Here’s a synopsis: Once the Wuhan wave recedes the ripple effects will reach every aspect of life as we know it today,and not necessarily in a bad thing: “when it finally runs its course, a whole lot of things are going to be very, very different…it’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.

The premise is that this pandemic exposes the shortcomings in many arenas not the least of which is the ongoing battle between the progressive left’s desire to break down every societal tradition

and political norm in the pursuit of inexorable “change” and the conservative right’s losing attempt to maintain valid traditions and norms.

If a fence exists, there is likely a reason for it.

The list of losers as a result of the spread of the Wuhan virus are many and mighty:

The European Union

…So say “auf Wiedersehen” to the European Union as we knew it as the Europeans remember the joys and protective uses of nationalism, and those more interested in national survival than the Brussels pipe dream follow Britain out the door.

Open borders

…Just a few days ago, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden was calling Trump’s handling of the Wuhan flu crisis “xenophobic.” But now that the virus has shut down commerce and travel from New York to California, Americans are less tolerant of law-flouting than they were a month ago. That old folks should be confined to quarters for up to four months while the homeless turn the sidewalks into open-air latrines, Hollywood, the lifeblood of Los Angeles, essentially shuts down production, and movie theaters across the nation close. As 30,000 illegals continue to cross the southwest border per month, open borders have suddenly become a luxury even a liberal can no longer afford.

China:

…Dependence on China for, among other things, prescription drugs and medical devices, is now a thing of the past, especially after a Chinese threat to withhold life-saving pharmaceuticals.

Climate Change:

…An enormous industry of global-warming alarmists and rent-seekers is going to have to make do with less fools’ gold as rational countries redirect critical resources to infectious-disease care and prevention.

Globalism and “free trade”

…One of the cornerstones of the left-right consensus, and an unholy alliance between the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and outfits such as La Raza, globalism (along with open borders) has enriched the few at the expense of the many and beggared everybody else. Look for “American made” to mean something again.

And there are more including income taxes, sports,

public transportation (the private automobile turns out to be the perfect social-distancing vehicle), animal rights, judicial rule, Democrats (!) and – ta da! – the media:

“whose anti-Trump mania, reliance on manipulative if not imaginary “anonymous sources,” eagerness to be seduced by former members of the intelligence community, general ignorance of almost every specialized field they encounter, political naiveté, and absolute fidelity to the party line (“Wuhan” is now racist) has rendered a once-proud profession little more than a mouthpiece for the Democratic National Committee and a constant reproach to truth, justice, and the American way.”

While it is hard to put a positive spin on the Wuhan virus at this point this visionary glimpse at it’s potential societal impact is encouraging. If you need to get over the hump, I encourage you to read the whole thing.

Come on people, we can do this!